I simulated Copa America 100 times in Football Manager...
What happens when you let a football manager simulation run wild with the Copa America tournament a hundred times? Let's just say, the results are as unpredictable as Giasi Zardes in front of goal!
So here we are. The 10 CONMEBOL and 6 CONCACAF squads are set, I went into football manager to simulate 100 Copa America tournaments to find out who is most likely to lift the trophy and honestly, the results will absolutely shock you.
The tournament is set up in such a way that one side of the knockout bracket is group A vs group B, and the other side group C vs Group D. Group A has Argentina, Canada, Peru and Chile. Group B is Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Jamaica. Group C is hosts United States, Uruguay, Panama, and Bolivia. And Group D is Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay, and Costa Rica.
Now it seems obvious to me that there is a clear favorite in Argentina to reach the final from the A/B side, but the C/D side is a bit more complicated with the hosts, and then Brazil, Uruguay, and Colombia all bringing dangerous squads to the tournament. Keep in mind each of these simulations took an hour each, and then I added all of the data into a spreadsheet tracker and by the end of this it is easily over 200 hours of work to bring you this. I am really proud of it - i hope you enjoy this!
Let’s start with the obvious first choice you all want to know. Who were the best and worst teams. Here are the five teams that averaged the least amount of points in the group stage.
5th worst was Peru averaging just 1 win per group stage and 3.1 points. Unfortunately for Peruvians they only qualified for the knockouts 6% of the time. For group A it’s really difficult because actually the 6th and 7th worst teams in the group stage were Canada and Chile. So Peru was close to their group mates but the worst of the bunch.
4th worst is Group D’s Paraguay with an average of only 2.9 points per group stage but they do make the knockouts 7% of the time.
Next up is the first time we see a CONCACAF team it’s Jamaica in group B averaging less than a win per group stage and only 2.7 points. However, they make the knockouts more often than Paraguay and Peru mostly because of how Group B is made up.
2nd worst is the lowest ranked CONMEBOL and Group C’s Bolivia. Bolivia is going to have quite a hill to climb if they want to do any damage in this tournament. .7 wins per group stage and only 2.3 points. They qualified for the knockouts 5% of the time.
But by far the worst team in Copa America was Costa Rica who averaged 2 points per tournament and qualified for a whopping 0% of knockout rounds. You had 100 chances Costa Rica and you didn’t qualify in any of them. oof.
Okay onto the best. Who were the best performing teams in the group stage?
In 5th place is a surprise to me but it’s Group B’s Ecuador averaging 1.7 wins per group stage and 5.3 points. They have an 89% chance to qualify.
Next up is a team who has defeated Argentia and Brazil in the past year Colombia. Colombia breached the 2 wins per group stage threshold and averaged 6.2 points. They qualified for the knockouts 95% of the time.
The next teams are actually a tie for 2nd place with Brazil and Uruguay both averaging 2.2 wins and .2 draws per group stage for a massive 6.8 points per tournament. However because of the makeup of their groups, Brazil edges out Uruguay qualifying past the group 98% of the time while Uruguay lagged at 93%.
The best performing team in the group stage by far is Lionel Messi’s Argentina, averaging 2.6 wins and 7.9 points. Argentina only missed the knockouts in two of the 100 simulations.
Now the good stuff. Which countries lift the Copa America trophy? Let’s recognize all the teams who won at least once and to my surprise over half the 16 teams across the 100 simulations won this tournament - that is absolutely wild and shows how competitive this summer is going to be. Soccer fans are gonna be eatin with Copa, Euros, and Olympics all at the same time.
Paraguay and Chile each played spoilers just once by lifting the Copa America trophy while Mexico won in 4 of the tournaments. We make a sizeable jump up to the hosts USA and Ecuador who raised the trophy 9 times each. Colombia and Uruguay each won the final 10 times and the last two teams are who you expect, which Brazil winning 27 editions, and Argentina taking home 29.
The most surprising thing to me here is how many the US won, and I think while the engine generally underestimates the US talent pool, I think home field advantage is playing a huge part in these simulations especially in one-off knockout rounds. The group with the most combined finals and the only group with three winners was Group D with Brazil, Colombia, and Paraguay. Is group D the real group of death here? It seems to be that group C and D have by far the most difficult side of the knockout bracket and therefore more difficult road to the final.
Argentina’s dominance in the group stage didn’t really slow down throughout. Out of 98 quarterfinals they won 83 of them, and eventually went on to win the trophy 29% of the time. If I’m a US fan… which I am wink wink then I’m feeling pretty good about FM giving us an 9% chance to win the whole dang thing with so many incredible teams participating except Mexico they suck.
In the simulations, Vinicius jr was the golden boot winner in 41% of the tournaments, but again good news for US fans that in 6% of the simulations Folarin Balogun led the Copa America scoring charts.
Last but not least I want to give a huge shoutout to Canada who made the final 6 different times and won 0 of them. Let’s all point and laugh at America’s hat!
One last thing I wanted to do was compare the simulation to the current betting odds and see if there were any over/underperformers. It turns out some teams are sneakily outperforming what the bookies thought. Ecuador, the United States, and Colombia are the dark horses with win rates in the simulation far exceeding the betting odds' expectations. On the flip side, even though powerhouses like Argentina and Brazil showed strong, they didn’t quite live up to the high hopes set by their odds. Uruguay also seemed to stumble a bit more than expected. These results could shake up your betting strategies, or at least give you some epic bragging rights in debates with your friends! So, are the bookmakers missing a trick here, or is Football Manager onto something the odds haven't caught yet?
Ok that’s it. What did you think? Do you agree with the Football manager engine? What team surprised you the most? Let me know in the comments!
I hope everyone enjoyed this experiment and I have to thank Southern New Hampshire University for sponsoring this content.
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