A point leaves the USMNT in control of their destiny at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
There is all to play for on Black Friday
Doom and gloom. That’s what I see on online message boards and what I hear on reaction videos after Monday’s 1-1 draw between USA and Wales. That is simply not the reality, not only because a draw still provides us with a greater than 50% chance to advance to the knockouts, but it leaves all results in the hands of the team.
Does it feel disappointing to walk away with a point after leading the match and restricting Wales chances? OF COURSE! But at the same time we’ve been prepared for this eventuality… a young and inexperienced squad with a coach from an outside league and this was bound to happen. We’re past the point where we need to spend time and effort shaking our fists at USSF for their decisions in years past. That reckoning can come after the team plays their biggest game in 8 years on Friday afternoon against England.
For now let’s focus on the present. The initial group stage match against Wales was essentially an elimination game and we survived to fight another day. The result also guarantees that we will be in contention until the final match against Iran. A win or a draw against England would be incredible for our chances, but a slim loss will likely put us in a position to advance as long as we take care of business against Iran.
There are obviously open questions and I’m not ignoring those. Where was Gio Reyna? Why didn’t we react to Kieffer Moore’s appearance for Wales? Why is one of the more experienced players making an incredibly stupid individual mistake to hand Wales a penalty? All are valid. Let’s take them in stride.
Reyna made comments after the game that he is “100%” but also felt some tightness during the USMNT’s exhibition match on Thursday prior to the World Cup. Gregg later stated he wanted thought the moment of the match called for “power and speed” and decided Jordan Morris provided more of that than Gio Reyna. Fine. I don’t agree but at least there is thinking behind it.
Why didn’t we react to Kieffer Moore and his impact on Wales’ shape? This one is way more egregious to me than Jordan Morris’ appearance. In the first half the US dominated possession and the scoring opportunities, but when Wales added numbers to their midfield it made it much more difficult for the US team. Gregg needs to make sure he’s prepared for these eventualities. Kieffer Moore is not an unknown quantity.
Walker Zimmerman made a mistake, but it’s the first one he has made in a US shirt in two years. A player with no World Cup experience makes a dumb decision in a high-stress moment with 10 minutes to go with his team up a goal? I’m not going to hold it over him. Hopefully he learns and improves for next time.
Just like the result, those three questions and subsequent answers weren’t what we wanted, but we can’t say we weren’t prepared for these moments of inexperience.
The US should walk confidently onto the pitch to face their toughest test on Black Friday at 2pm ET against a scary England squad which disposed of Iran 6-2 in their opener. Look out for a tactical preview tomorrow on the channel - I did predict a 1-1 draw for USA vs Wales… just saying.
Jake,
I don't think our chances are better than 50%. It seems to me that Wales has the better odds. It's because Wales plays England in the last match of the group stage. Here's how I look at it:
- Wales will beat Iran. It might be by one goal, but I think it'll be by 2 goals.
- England will beat the US, convincingly. I think at least by 2 goals (hopefully not more).
- In the third match, England will still want to beat Wales; but the pressure to do so convincingly will be blunted by the practicality of needing to stay injury- and suspension-free. So, England wins by one goal.
- That put's Wales with 4 points, but a +1 goal differential.
- Which means that the US needs to beat Iran by four goals (or else tie-breakers come into play). That's asking a lot.