The Final Whistle for Graham Potter?
Graham Potter's tenure sits on the brink as Julian Nagelsmann's availability looms large
Since Graham Potter left Brighton, Brighton have more points than Chelsea with two less games played…
Chelsea under Potter haven’t just dropped result after result, they’ve looked absolutely dreadful in the process. There are very few redeeming qualities after more than 20 matches in charge. If the board and owners are looking to judge Potter on years instead of months, they may not even see the progress needed to get him past this season.
And the energy seemed to turn even darker after Saturday’s loss at home to Aston Villa. As the final whistle blew there was more misery than anger from the fans that remained. With that result, Chelsea now sit in the bottom half of the Premier League with a squad that cost over a billion dollars to assemble.
Out of ten losses this season eight have been suffered under Potter’s reign. And in the tenth loss it wasn’t just the players that seemed to have given up or made rash decisions - Potter put out a starting XI with only one natural center back in Kalidou Koulibaly.
As is tradition Graham Potter made comments after the match regarding the expected goals from each team - citing Aston Villa’s lower figure than Chelsea’s. But as we all know there is only one statistic that means anything in this sport and it requires you to have more than your opponent if you want three points.
In that respect Graham Potter may be his own worst enemy in that regard. Continually harping on expected goals or statistics that don’t lead to results is not the mark of an elite manager. What’s more worrying is the fact that by his own admission over and over again “the boys gave everything”. Well… if the team gives everything and your tactics or team talks can’t get the squad to win the match it may be time to look in the mirror.
If that's the case that “the boys gave everything”, then there may not be more to offer from the coaching staff. By Potter’s own admission, they gave everything, there isn't much else he can do.
Let’s also consider that squad he has inherited not only won a Champions League title under now Bayern manager Thomas Tuchel, but many of the same players played their best football under Frank Lampard. A coach who was fired from Everton after his stint at Chelsea got The Blues qualified for the Champions League campaign while under a transfer ban, and brought about the age of Reece James, Mason Mount, and “lockdown” Pulisic.
As we find ourselves in the eighth month of Potter's reign, the level of disorder that has persisted is undeniably troubling. While it is crucial to acknowledge the exceptional challenges he has faced since taking over from Thomas Tuchel, this can only go so far in justifying the current state of affairs. Despite the promising victories against Leeds United, Borussia Dortmund, and Leicester City, any optimism that these wins might signal the start of a turnaround is hard to maintain in the wake of the disappointing 2-2 draw against Everton and subsequent loss to Villa.
Chelsea currently finds themselves in 11th place, the same position they would occupy if the Premier League season had begun on the day Potter assumed his role. In the 22 matches he has managed thus far, his side has scored 21 goals and conceded an equal number. Looking at the accumulated xG metrics, his team has a total of 28.3, while the accumulated xG against is 27.2, indicating a level of mediocrity that is difficult to overlook by almost every statistical measure.
While Potter can certainly point to a host of external factors beyond his control as contributing to Chelsea's struggles, he has yet to establish a convincing case for why he should be trusted to steer this exceedingly well-funded project into next season. If he is able to weather the storm and remain in charge, it will be a testament to Todd Boehly’s remarkable level of fortitude, which is truly without precedent in the annals of Premier League history.
It’s hard to judge Potter without that context, and history does not seem to favor Potter’s dynasty. If anything history may look very harshly on 7 wins in 22 matches.
Contrast that with the Bayern manager just made a free agent Julian Nagelsmann. The highly touted tactician at age 35 was let go from the German giants after winning 27 in 37, only dropping 3 matches in his entire tenure. After climbing the ranks from Hoffenheim youth squads to the senior team, RB Leipzig, and Bayern, Nagelsmann is regularly renowned as the future best manager in the world.
So how would it work with Nagelsmann at Chelsea? What is his style of management both on the pitch and off?
Ascending to a Bundesliga managerial position at just 28 years old is a testament to one's self-assurance and magnetism, and he possesses these traits in abundance. While he is frequently regarded as a tactical genius - and certainly, his innovative and dynamic approach to the game supports that notion - his focus is heavily weighted towards the psychological aspects of coaching.
He is regularly quoted leaning on those aspects, he declared: "Thirty per cent of coaching is tactics, 70 per cent social competence… At this level, the quality of the players at your disposal will ensure that you play well within a good tactical setup — if the psychological condition is right."
Nonetheless, playing under his tutelage is no cakewalk. He is known for driving his players to their limits and adapting his formations and starting lineups to suit each opponent, especially during his stints at Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig. Even with the adaptation, he regularly favored three-man defenses at Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig which could line up nicely to the squad Chelsea have assembled. With complete wingbacks in James, Chillwell, and Cucurella it would be a natural fit in Nagelsmann’s preferred formation. Add to that there are plenty of versatile midfielders able to play box to box, and a plethora of attackers that can play across the front line.
At Bayern more recently things got a bit more complicated. Nagelsmann has his squads defend with four in the back in a 4231 but move to a 3241 when in possession. Again - it’s very easy to see where this Chelsea squad could fit into a matching role right away. Nagelsmann’s Bayern squad also reduced their crossing appetite to the lowest in the Bundesliga, and without a pure poaching forward at Chelsea this could lead to an attacking style that looks to move the ball into the box to the feet of Havertz, Pulisic, or Sterling.
There did seem to be one problem at Bayern for Nagelsmann - the big names. When legends of the game Zidane or Guardiola step into a locker room nobody is questioning their ability or intellect. When a 33 year old that had his professional career cut short by injuries takes over one of the biggest clubs in the world at Bayern, the command of respect isn’t as easy to create right away.
This is the juncture at which top-tier clubs - or at least those with the most influential players - may begin to raise concerns. It is no secret that Nagelsmann was not in the best of terms with Manuel Neuer and Thomas Muller, two of Bayern's most prominent locker room figures. His inability to persuade these players of his tactics could deter other teams with dominant, well-established personalities among their ranks.
Nagelsmann boasts a range of qualities that Chelsea's owners tend to prize in a head coach: his teams play an exciting brand of football, and his impressive track record in developing young talent could be particularly appealing.
Aside from Kalidou Koulibaly and Thiago Silva, the majority of Chelsea's key players and recent acquisitions are aged 24 and under, including Kai Havertz, Enzo Fernandez, Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Noni Madueke, and Mykhailo Mudryk. Add to that the anticipated summer arrival of Christopher Nkunku, who has previously worked with Nagelsmann, and the picture becomes even clearer. If Nagelsmann's forte is nurturing young talent, then Chelsea's squad fits the bill quite precisely.
It is also worth noting that Nagelsmann's closest bond at Bayern was with Joshua Kimmich, who acted as the team's foundation around which all other players revolved. While few players can match Kimmich's level of skill, Enzo Fernandez bears the closest resemblance.
As the team's metronome, Fernandez and Kimmich share a similar role in initiating attacks for their respective teams, displaying an almost flawless ability to retain possession while also serving as a vital component in their team's attacking machinery. Both players are able to advance the ball into dangerous areas and even contribute with goals and assists. The only difference is that Kimmich has demonstrated these abilities consistently over several seasons in a Bayern shirt, whereas Fernandez is just getting started. This could be an avenue for Chelsea to get the most out of their costliest investment, as well as a kindred spirit to entice Nagelsmann to make the move to west London.
Jake,
This is an excellent analysis. Although there will be several managerial positions available (just today, Brendan Rodgers got the boot at Leicester), there are only a few that the former manager of Bayern Munich would consider. And Chelsea is certainly one of them.